The Derby della Madonnina is more than just a football match—it’s a city divided, a rivalry carved into concrete and passion. On Sunday, November 23, 2025, at 14:45 local time, FC Internazionale Milano and AC Milan will lock horns at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, better known as San Siro, in what promises to be one of the most intense fixtures of the Serie A 2025-26 seasonMilan. Bookmakers aren’t just predicting a winner—they’re betting heavily on Inter. Odds range from 1.80 at Eurobet to 1.90 at Netwin, implying a near 50% chance of an Inter victory. Meanwhile, AC Milan’s win is priced at 4.05–4.50, and the draw sits stubbornly at 3.55–3.60. The numbers don’t lie: this isn’t a toss-up. It’s a favoritism built on form, history, and tactical momentum.
Form, Fear, and the Favored Nerazzurri
Inter enters this clash on a four-match winning streak, according to KhelNow.com, with their attack firing on all cylinders. Lautaro Martínez and Marcus Thuram have combined for 11 goals in their last five league games. Christian Eriksen, now 42 but still orchestrating play with surgical precision, has been the quiet engine behind their dominance. Their midfield, anchored by Adrien Rabiot, has tightened like a steel trap. FC Internazionale Milano isn’t just playing well—they’re playing with purpose.AC Milan, by contrast, hasn’t lost in their last five matches. But ‘not losing’ isn’t the same as dominating. They’ve drawn three of those five, relying on defensive discipline and the lightning of Rafael Leao to carve out chances. Leao’s pace is terrifying, and BetMGM’s 3/1 odds on an AC Milan win reflect the belief that one moment of brilliance can change everything. But can one moment be enough against Inter’s structured press and vertical transitions? SetteCalcio.it puts it bluntly: “L’Inter costruisce il proprio dominio attraverso ritmo e verticalità, mentre il Milan predilige equilibrio e letture tattiche.” Translation? Inter builds through rhythm and directness. Milan waits, watches, and reacts.
The Betting Markets: Where the Real Action Is
The odds tell one story. The markets tell another.Over 2.5 goals is hovering at 65% probability (2.06 odds at Melbet). Both Teams to Score (BTTS) is at 55.83% (1.91 at Bet365). These aren’t random guesses—they’re data-driven conclusions. The Derby della Madonnina rarely ends in a 0-0 stalemate. Even when defenses dominate, someone scores. Goal.com confirms BTTS at 1.85, while Betway offers Under 3.5 goals at 3/8—a sign that while goals are expected, a rout isn’t.
For those chasing bigger payouts, the correct score market is a playground. SportsGambler.com is boldly predicting a 2-0 Inter win at +750 odds. GoldenPalaceSports.be backs that up: “Historically, Inter has the upper hand in the derby with more victories.” That’s not nostalgia—it’s fact. In the last 10 derbies, Inter have won six, Milan two, and two ended in draws. And let’s not forget: Inter haven’t won a derby since last season’s Supercoppa. They’re due.
Then there’s the Asian Handicap: Inter at -0.25 (-132). That means if you bet on Inter and they draw, you get half your stake back. Win, and you collect full odds. It’s a smart hedge for cautious bettors who believe in Inter’s superiority but fear Milan’s resilience.
Promos, Predictions, and the Wild Cards
Bookmakers aren’t just setting odds—they’re selling excitement. Marathonbet is boosting Over 2.5 goals to 10.00 odds (minimum €10 deposit). Planetwin365 is offering 15.00 odds on “Inter + First Card”—a wild play that combines team outcome with disciplinary chaos. And while most analysts lean Inter, SportsKeeda.com throws a curveball: their top tip? A draw.That’s the beauty of this fixture. No one’s certain. Even the models disagree. SportyTrader.com’s AI gives Inter a 47.82% win probability, while others like SportsGambler.com see 48%. But the odds movement tells a deeper story: Inter’s win probability dropped from 55.6% to 48.8% as the market adjusted. That means money’s coming in on Milan and the draw. The public is nervous. The smart money? Still on Inter.
Why This Matters Beyond the Points
This isn’t just about top-four ambitions. Inter are chasing their first Serie A title since 2021. Milan are clinging to relevance after a turbulent rebuild. A win for Inter would extend their lead at the summit. A win for Milan? It could reignite their campaign—and send a message to the league that they’re still dangerous.And then there’s the fans. The chants. The scarves. The tension that turns San Siro into a pressure cooker. This is football at its most primal. No team in Italy plays with more emotion than these two. No match carries more weight.
What’s Next? The Ripple Effect
If Inter win, they’ll be 10 points clear at the top by matchweek 13. That’s a psychological blow to the chasing pack. If Milan pull off the upset? Expect a surge in ticket sales for their next home game and a spike in social media chatter that could rival the World Cup.Either way, the result will echo through transfer windows, coaching decisions, and fan loyalty. A loss for Inter might spark rumors about Simone Inzaghi’s future. A loss for Milan? Could mean the end of the road for head coach Paulo Fonseca.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why are Inter’s odds lower than expected despite their recent winning streak?
Despite Inter’s four-match win streak, bookmakers have adjusted odds downward due to increased betting volume on AC Milan and the draw, signaling market skepticism. Historically, derbies defy form—Inter’s last derby win was over a year ago, and their 5-game winless run in last season’s derbies still lingers in oddsmakers’ minds. The current odds reflect both current momentum and deep-seated derby unpredictability.
Who are the key players to watch in this derby?
For Inter, Lautaro Martínez and Marcus Thuram form the deadliest strike partnership in Serie A this season, combining pace, positioning, and clinical finishing. Christian Eriksen controls tempo, while Adrien Rabiot anchors the midfield. For AC Milan, Rafael Leao remains the wildcard—his speed can break any defense. Sandro Tonali’s return from injury adds midfield steel, and Omar Marmoush has been a surprise threat off the bench.
Is a draw a viable betting option?
Yes, and it’s statistically more likely than many assume. In the last 10 derbies, draws occurred in 20% of cases. With both teams strong defensively and high stakes, a 1-1 or 0-0 result is plausible. The draw odds of 3.55–3.60 offer value, especially if you believe Milan’s tactical patience can neutralize Inter’s pressure. SportsKeeda’s draw tip isn’t a long shot—it’s a calculated play.
What’s the safest betting market for this match?
The safest bet is Both Teams to Score (BTTS) at 1.91 odds. Both clubs have scored in 8 of their last 10 league matches. Inter’s defense has conceded in 7 of their last 8 games, and Milan’s attack, while inconsistent, has found the net in 4 of their last 5. With 55.83% probability and a low-risk return, BTTS offers balance between safety and reward.
How does the weather affect betting odds for this match?
Current forecasts predict dry, mild conditions in Milan on November 23, with temperatures around 12°C and light winds. This favors technical play over physicality, which benefits Inter’s structured, possession-based style. Wet or windy conditions would have tilted the scales toward Milan’s counterattacking approach. As it stands, the weather reinforces Inter’s advantage.
Can AC Milan pull off an upset despite the odds?
Absolutely. Derbies are emotional, not statistical. Milan have won at San Siro in the past despite being underdogs—most recently in 2022. If Leao scores early, if Inter’s midfield loses cohesion, or if referee decisions favor Milan, the game can flip in minutes. History shows that 30% of derbies are won by the team with worse form. Don’t count Milan out—just don’t bet on them unless you’re ready for the risk.